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2019年CPI漲幅創8年新高豬肉價格高位回落
2020-01-11 18:20   来源:  www.weichemedia.cn   评论:0 点击:

2019年CPI漲幅創8年新高豬肉價格高位回落导读:去年11月、12月PMI保持在景气区间,我国经济运行出现积极信

导读:去年11月、12月PMI保持在景气区间,我国经济运行出现积极信号,一季度基建投资发力等,有助于PPI转正。

Last November and December, the PMI remained in the boom zone, China's economic performance appeared a positive signal, the first quarter of capital investment, and so on, to help PPI turn positive.

不过,这并不意味着物价的全面上涨,全部工业品价格相对疲弱。2019年全国工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比下降%,未能延续前两年工业品价格回升的态势。

However, this does not mean a full-scale rise in prices, all industrial goods prices are relatively weak. The national industrial producer ex-factory price index (PPI) fell by% year-on-year in 2019, failing to continue the rally in industrial goods prices in the previous two years.

展望2020年,处于历史高位的猪肉价格,仍将继续极大影响2020年CPI走势。但2019年12月猪肉价格已经出现高位回调,12月生猪出栏量回升,以及能繁母猪存栏数量的企稳回升,猪肉价格持续上涨的可能性较低。

Looking ahead to 2020, pork prices at all-time highs will continue to significantly affect CPI trends in 2020. But pork prices have seen a high correction in December 2019, a recovery in pig output in December, and a steady recovery in the number of sows that can be grown, with a lower likelihood that pork prices will continue to rise.

中东局势短期对国际油价造成扰动,但全球经济增速趋缓,我国经济仍面临下行压力,2020年PPI价格持续回升的可能性不大。不过,去年11月、12月PMI保持在景气区间,我国经济运行出现积极信号,一季度基建投资发力等,有助于PPI转正。

The situation in the Middle East has disturbed international oil prices in the short term, but the global economic growth rate is slowing, China's economy is still under downward pressure, and PPI prices are unlikely to continue to recover in 2020. However, in November and December of last year, the PMI remained in the boom zone, the country's economic performance showed a positive signal, the first quarter of capital investment, and so on, to help the PPI turn positive.

其中,食品价格上涨%,非食品价格上涨%。食品品类中,涨幅遥遥领先的是猪肉,2019年猪肉价格同比上涨%。猪肉价格持续上涨,也带动了其他替代畜肉的涨价,2019年牛肉、羊肉价格同比上涨%、%。

Among them, food prices rose%, non-food prices rose%. Among the food categories, the gains are far ahead for pork, which is up% year-on-year in 2019. Pork prices continued to rise, but also led to other alternative livestock prices,2019 beef, mutton prices rose by%,%.

除了畜肉,鲜果价格上涨幅度居前,同比上涨%。鲜果价格大幅上涨,集中在上半年,当时“水果焦虑”的话题在社交媒体讨论热度很高。但随着当季新鲜水果的上市,7月以来鲜果价格逐渐回落。

In addition to animal meat, fresh fruit prices rose by the highest percentage, up% year-on-year. Fresh fruit prices soared, focusing on the first half of the year, when the topic of \"fruit anxiety\" was hotly discussed on social media. But fresh fruit prices have fallen since july as the season goes on sale.

“2019年CPI创近8年来新高,主要受猪肉价格上涨影响。自2019年3月起,猪肉价格进入上涨周期,持续对CPI构成上行推力,全年累计拉动CPI上涨个百分点,剔除猪肉因素后,CPI上涨%,处于合理区间。”民生证券首席宏观分析师解运亮对21世纪经济报道记者表示。

\"CPI hit a near eight-year high in 2019, largely affected by rising pork prices. Since March 2019, pork prices have entered the rising cycle, continuing to constitute an upward thrust on the CPI, which has been pulling up a percentage point for the year, and after removing the pork factor, the CPI has risen by% in a reasonable range. Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst at Minsheng Securities, told the 21st century economic report.

不过,2019年12月份猪肉价格呈现高位回落的态势。2019年12月,猪肉价格同比上涨97%,涨幅较上月有所回落,12月环比下降%。

However, in December 2019, pork prices showed a trend of high decline. Pork prices rose 97 percent year-on-year in December 2019, down from the previous month and down% in December.

国家统计局城市司高级统计师沈赟表示,随着生猪生产出现积极变化,中央和地方储备猪肉陆续投放,进口量有所增加,猪肉供给紧张状况进一步缓解,12月价格由上月上涨转为下降。在猪肉价格下降的影响下,12月份牛肉和羊肉价格涨幅收窄,鸡肉和鸭肉价格有所回落。

Shen Yun, senior statistician at the city department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the positive changes in pig production, the central and local reserves of pork have been put in one after another, the volume of imports has increased, and the tight supply of pork has been further alleviated, and the price in December has shifted from a rise last month to a decline. Beef and lamb prices narrowed in December and chicken and duck prices fell somewhat on the back of falling pork prices.

1月8日,农业农村部新闻发布会消息显示,临近春节消费旺季,2019年12月生猪出栏量止降回升,环比大幅增长%,有效缓解了猪肉供应紧张的局面。不仅如此,生猪基础产能在逐步恢复。农业农村部数据显示,2019年12月份全国能繁母猪存栏环比增长%,连续3个月环比增长。

On January 8, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs news conference showed that near the Spring Festival consumption season, in December 2019, the number of pigs out of the column fell back, a sharp increase of%, effectively alleviated the situation of tight pork supply. Moreover, the pig base capacity is gradually recovering. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December 2019, the number of sows in the country grew by%, three months in a row.

交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智对21世纪经济报道记者表示,从商务部公布的数据来看,稳定猪肉价格的各种措施逐渐见效,去年12月以来猪肉批发价基本保持在43元/公斤左右,涨幅略有下降,但仍然很高。

Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications's Financial Research Center, told the 21st Century Economic Report that the figures released by the Ministry of Commerce showed that various measures to stabilize pork prices were gradually effective, and that the wholesale price of pork had remained about 43 yuan\/kg since December, a slight decline but still very high.

“去年四季度生猪存栏量有所回升,但回升幅度有限。生猪出栏有一定周期,要6个月左右,要形成有效的猪肉供应,要到今年一季度之后。当前猪肉价格达到历史高位,是非理性的,存在盲目抬价行为,近期打击哄抬物价等政策效果逐渐显现;猪肉价格再继续上涨,消费者会选择其他替代肉类,因此虽然存在猪肉供应缺口,但猪肉价格继续上涨的可能性不高。”刘学智表示。

"The stock of raw pigs picked up in the fourth quarter of last year, but the recovery was limited.” Pigs have a certain cycle, about six months, to form an effective pork supply, until after the first quarter of this year. At present, pork prices have reached a historical high, is irrational, there is blind price raising behavior, the recent impact of policies such as the fight against price inflation gradually emerged; pork prices continue to rise, consumers will choose other alternative meat, so although there is a gap in pork supply, but pork prices continue to rise is not likely. Liu Xuezhi said.

猪肉价格整体走稳,但春节期间是否继续涨价,市场有不同的判断。解运亮表示,在前期恢复生猪生产的一系列措施下,10月能繁母猪存栏、11月生猪存栏、12月生猪出栏先后实现止跌回升,预示着猪肉价格企稳的力量正在积蓄。春节前,猪肉需求迎来高峰,短期内猪肉价格可能继续上行,春节期间可能突破60元/公斤,春节过后有望企稳走平并逐渐进入下行通道。

Pork prices as a whole stable, but during the Spring Festival whether continue to raise prices, the market has different judgments. Xie Yunliang said that in the early recovery of a series of measures to restore pig production, october can be breeding sow column, november pig column, december pig column has achieved a rebound, indicating that the strength of stable pork prices is accumulating. Before the Spring Festival, pork demand ushered in a peak, the short-term pork prices may continue to rise, during the Spring Festival may exceed 60 yuan \/ kg, after the Spring Festival is expected to stabilize and gradually enter the downlink channel.

比如,2019年家庭服务、衣着加工服务费、教育服务价格分别上涨%、%、%,跑赢整体消费品价格,在非食品类价格中涨幅居前。

For example, in 2019, the price of family services, clothing processing services and education services rose by%,% and% respectively, beating the overall price of consumer goods, leading the rise in non-food prices.

21世纪经济报道记者查阅近年数据发现,家庭服务价格一直保持稳健增长,2016-2019年间年度涨幅分别为%、%、%、%,保持较为稳健的增长。衣着加工服务费在2011-2019年间年均涨幅均在4%以上,部分年份高达7%。

The 21st Century economic report reporter looked at recent data and found that household service prices have been growing steadily, with annual increases of%,%,% and% between 2016 and 2019, respectively, maintaining a more robust growth rate. Clothing processing services rose by more than 4% a year between 2011 and 2019, and up to 7% in some years.

“服务消费价格上涨,反映我国经济结构转型的方向。像家庭服务等价格的稳定上涨,既跟我国整体人力成本上升有关,也反映出我国国民收入水平在上升。”刘学智表示。

\"The rise in service consumption prices reflects the direction of China's economic restructuring. The steady rise in prices, such as family services, is not only related to the rise in overall human costs, but also reflects the rising level of national income. Liu Xuezhi said.

如果说消费领域尚有部分亮点,工业品领域价格整体较为疲弱。2019年PPI同比下降%,整体来看,上半年处于正增长区间,下半年则处于负增长区间。2019年PPI月度环比波动不大,大致在-%到%之间波动。

If there are some bright spots in the consumer sector, the overall price of industrial goods is weak. PPI fell by% year-on-year in 2019, with the first half in a positive range and the second in a negative range overall. The PPI month-on-month volatility for 2019 is small, roughly between -% and%.

前海开源基金高级研究员李赫对21世纪经济报道记者表示,2019年PPI同比下降%,较上年下降个百分点。CPI上行与PPI下行形成了价格剪刀差:CPI上行往往由于食品价格所致,而农林牧渔业占我国比重在6%左右,受益的行业较少;PPI下行则是工业产品价格下降所致,由于工业生产、需求较弱导致PPI下行,工业企业利润承压,反映经济面临下行压力。

Li he, a senior researcher at the Qianhai Open Source Fund, told 21st Century Economic Report that PPI fell by% year-on-year in 2019, down a percentage point from the previous year. CPI uplink and PPI downline formed a price scissors difference: CPI uplink is often due to food prices, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries account for about 6% of China's total, benefiting less industries; PPI downline is due to lower prices of industrial products, weak demand led to PPI downline, industrial enterprises profit pressure, reflecting the downward pressure on the economy.

解运亮表示,PPI是一个全球变量,与全球经济形势密切相关,主要经济体PPI走势具有高度同步性。2019年PPI录得负增长,主要原因就是贸易保护主义引致的全球经济放缓。当前我国物价形势的总体特征是结构性通胀和工业品通缩并存,全面通胀的风险可控,更加值得警惕的还是通缩风险。

Xie Yunliang said PPI is a global variable closely related to the global economic situation, and the PPI trend in major economies is highly synchronized. PPI recorded negative growth in 2019, mainly because of a global economic slowdown caused by trade protectionism. At present, the overall characteristics of China's price situation are structural inflation and industrial deflation coexist, the risk of total inflation is controllable, and the risk of deflation is more worthy of vigilance.

2020年开年,中东局势动荡,造成国际原油价格的短期抬升。但市场普遍预计,美伊不会卷入真正战争,双方冲和谈的概率较大。

In 2020, the turmoil in the Middle East has led to a short-term rise in international crude oil prices. But markets generally expect that the U. S. and Iraq will not be involved in a real war, and the chances of the two sides rushing into peace talks are high.

刘学智表示,去年底PMI、工业生产的好转,跟中美贸易摩擦缓解、与出口相关的生产预期改善有关。今年1月稳基建力度在加大,地方政府专项债发行力度超过去年同期,这有利于工业需求的改善。综合各种因素,PPI可能在一季度转正。

“美国制造业景气仍在不断放缓,2020年全球经济仍将处于深度调整之中。这意味着,2020年多数时间里,PPI可能仍然处于负区间”,解运亮表示。

"The manufacturing boom in the United States is still slowing and the global economy will remain in deep adjustment in 2020.” This means that PPI may still be in a negative range for much of 2020.

我国经济仍面临下行压力,外部形势依然复杂,市场普遍预计逆周期政策仍会持续发力。刘学智表示,当前经济运行有企稳的迹象,仍存在走弱的压力。虽然CPI处于高位,但是猪肉供应短缺带来的结构性通胀,不会对货币政策造成制约。2020年作为全面建成小康之年,宏观政策以稳为主,积极的财政政策要提质增效,扩大有效需求;货币政策要延续稳健基调,略微偏向宽松,持续推进改革,降低实体经济融资成本,推动经济平稳增长。

China's economy is still facing downward pressure, the external situation is still complex, the market generally expects that the counter-cyclical policy will continue to exert force. Mr Liu said there were signs of stabilisation in the current economy and there was still pressure to weaken. Although CPI is high, the structural inflation resulting from a shortage of pork supplies will not constrain monetary policy. In 2020, as the year of building a well-to-do society in an all-round way, macro-policy is dominated by stability.The positive fiscal policy should improve quality and efficiency and expand effective demand.Monetary policy should continue its sound tone, be slightly more relaxed, continue to push forward reform, reduce the cost of financing for the real economy, and promote steady economic growth.


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